Greg Howard

Why do populations exhibit Zipf’s law nationally and within regions? This paper develops a model of location choice in which places substitute for one another at local, regional, and national scales. Heterogeneous geographic scope generates rank-size regularities and fractal spatial patterns. The model links bilateral migration flows to population cross-elasticities, yielding testable predictions: migration is nearly log-uniform in distance, follows gravity, and is disproportionately long-distance and large-city-to-large-city for bigger places. Observed migration flows discipline a quantitative cross-nested logit model. Combined with agglomeration, the model reproduces observed spatial distributions while reducing reliance on residual amenities.

Using detailed credit data and an empirical strategy based on the removal of Chapter 7 bankruptcy flags, we study the effects of credit access on internal migration and neighborhood choice. We document that increased credit access increases zip-code migration rates but has no positive effect on a person's neighborhood quality. We interpret this result as consistent with a view that unconstrained movers equalize utility across space by their willingness to pay for housing, so constrained agents have no incentive to move to better-on-observable neighborhoods when their constraints are relaxed.

We investigate the effects of 4-year public historically Black colleges and universities (HBCUs) on social mobility of nearby Black and White children. For causal identification, we exploit that many HBCUs began as normal schools training Black teachers. We argue site selection resembled that for Black insane asylums (as well as all asylums). Using this design, we find that in recent years, Black children from counties with Black normal schools are seven percentage points more likely to graduate college and rise two percentiles in the income distribution that those from control asylum counties. We find no effects for White children.

We study the effect of regional public universities on local teacher labor markets. We use the historical assignment of normal schools and insane asylums to identify the effect of university proximity. Normal schools, built to train teachers, became regional universities while asylums mostly continue as small psychiatric facilities. Our evidence suggests greater teacher supply in normal school counties: lower teacher wages and more teachers per student. Asylum counties have more teachers with emergency credentials and fewer who majored in education—suggesting they mitigate lower supply by hiring in different pools. Normal school counties have higher high school test scores and graduation rates.

We show a new fact: the t-year interstate migration rate is close to proportional to the square root of t. This is a puzzle for simple moving cost models which predict an approximately linear relationship. We propose a model of persistent and spatially-correlated match-specific utility that produces the square root fact while maintaining the tractability and flexibility of standard migration models. Compared to the standard model, the new model yields better forecasts of individuals' locations, has different implications for welfare effects of migration policies, and makes different predictions for long-run population changes in response to shocks.

Regional public universities educate approximately 70 percent of college students at four-year public universities and an even larger share of students from disadvantaged backgrounds. They aim to provide opportunity for education and social mobility, in part by locating near potential students. In this paper, we use the historical assignment of normal schools and insane asylums, normal schools grew into regional universities while asylums remain small, and data from Opportunity Insights to identify the effects of regional universities on the social mobility of nearby children. Children in counties given a normal school get more education and have better economic and social outcomes, especially lower-income children. For several key outcomes, we show this effect is a causal effect on children, and not only selection on which children live near universities.

The internal migration literature has estimated a wide range of moving costs, including some that are several times larger than annual income. How should economists interpret this estimate? I show that in standard models, average moving costs can be decomposed into an information term and a returns to migration term. The information term is proportional to the Shannon entropy of next period's location minus the Shannon information of staying in the same location. In simple models, the information term is much larger than the returns to migration term; in some cases, the returns to migration term is zero. Therefore, average moving costs are a helpful statistic about the model's predictive power regarding future moves but are not invariant to seemingly innocuous choices of the modeler.

We argue that rising regional inequality contributes to higher average housing prices and rents. We show three key empirical facts that contribute to this mechanism: first, income growth has been faster in already high-income cities; second, people are drawn to these cities by the income growth, raising relative housing demand and relative housing prices and rents; and third, housing supply in these cities is inelastic due to density and regulation, so these cities have not produced the housing to match the rising demand. We illustrate the resulting changes using a graphical spatial model in which rising regional inequality reallocates population toward high-income, supply-constrained areas. This shift raises national average housing prices and rents.

We use a novel identification strategy to investigate whether regional universities make their local economies more resilient. Our strategy is based on state governments using similar site-selection criteria to assign normal schools, to train teachers, and insane asylums between 1830 and 1930. Normal schools became larger regional universities while asylum properties mostly continue as small state-owned psychiatric health facilities. We find that a regional university roughly offsets the negative effects of manufacturing exposure. We show the resilience of regional public university spending is an important mechanism, and we show correlations consistent with bachelor's degree share also playing a mediating role.

Who is rationally inattentive, and in what situations? Models of rational inattention allow agents to make mistakes in their actions, but assume they optimize their allocation of attention. Using millions of online chess moves, I test this assumption, by comparing the marginal benefits, better moves, and marginal costs, less time for future moves, of attention. I find that high-skilled players equalize marginal benefit and cost, but low-skilled players have higher marginal cost, i.e. they spend too long on moves. I also find that having less time leads to deviations from rational inattention. A simple intervention improves players' attention allocation.

Remote work has increased the demand for housing and changed the demand for the location of that housing. Because housing supply is heterogeneous across space and more elastic in the long-run, the effects on rents and populations may differ over time. We use the lens of a spatial housing model with heterogeneous housing supply elasticities to identify the housing and location demand changes from 2020-2022, and show that the same shocks will have different effects in the long run. Even though rents and prices increased significantly in the short-run, we estimate that in the long-run, increased housing demand will increase rents by only 1.8 percentage points, and that changing location demand will decrease rents by 0.3 percentage points, with a more negative impact on cities in which CPI is measured and cities that were initially expensive.

We document a new fact: regional divergence, the rate at which rich states grow faster than poor states, explains most U.S. house price movements since 1939, including the post-2000 boom-bust-boom cycle. An industry-share instrument provides evidence the relationship is causal, implying the location of economic growth affects national house prices. We propose a model to learn why regional divergence and house prices are related. In the model, high interstate inequality raises rents on average because relative demand for living in a high-income state increases and housing supply in low-income states is elastic. Regional divergence leads to higher expected future interstate inequality, which implies higher expected future rents, and therefore, higher current house prices. The model accurately predicts rents since 1929, which are quite different than prices, as well as cross-sectional moments of prices, rents, construction, and migration.

This paper provides evidence of rational inattention by experienced professionals in strategic interactions. We add rational inattention to a game of matching pennies with state-dependent payoffs. Unlike the full-information mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium, payoffs of different actions need not be equated state-by-state. Moreover, players respond partially to payoff differences, this responsiveness is stronger when attention costs are lower, strategies converge to full-information Nash as stakes increase, and average payoffs across all states are approximately equal across actions. We test these predictions using data on millions of pitches from Major League Baseball, where we observe strategies, payoffs, and proxies for attention costs.

How do different local policies in a federal system affect local land values, production, and sorting? We study the question exploiting a large historical policy change: U.S. Alcohol Prohibition in the early twentieth century. Comparing same-state early and late adopters of county dry laws in a difference-in-differences design, we find that early Prohibition adoption increased population and farm real estate values. Moreover, we find strong effects on farm productivity consistent with increased investment due to a land price channel. In equilibrium, the policy change disproportionately attracted immigrants and African-Americans.

Real rents measured in the United States CPI increased 17.4 log-points from 2000-2018. We present a spatial equilibrium framework to decompose the increase into several channels, including demand to live in housing-supply-inelastic cities. We find location demand contributed significantly: using parameterizations from the literature and a new rent index, we find it is responsible for between 17 and 73 percent of the overall rent increase, and an even larger share in cities where CPI is measured. The wide range is primarily due to a lack of consensus over the population elasticity to rents, so we estimate it by comparing the effects of demand shocks across cities of differing housing supply elasticities. We find that demand changes have similar effects across cities, suggesting a high population elasticity. Therefore, our preferred estimate is that location demand accounts for more than half of the increase. We discuss implications for housing supply policy.

What is the role of migration in regional evolutions? I document that within-U.S. migration causes a reduction in the unemployment rate of the receiving city, over several years. To establish this causal effect, I construct an instrument using outmigration of other places and predict its destination from historical patterns. The decline in unemployment is due to housing. Housing is durable, so increased demand causes a surge of new houses and construction jobs. Additionally, migrants' housing demand raises prices, increasing borrowing and non-tradable employment. This finding implies the endogenous response of migration amplifies local labor demand shocks by about a third.

Cromwell and Marar present an analysis of semi-regular, generic, surfaces with a single triple-point and connected self-intersection set. Six of their surfaces are the projective plane, including Boy's surface and Steiner's surface. We build on their work by incorporating twists similar to that of Apery's immersion of the projective plane and show that with a few additional surfaces, all such generic maps of the projective plane are now identified.

This paper studies the behavior of recoveries from recessions across 59 advanced and emerging market economies over the past 40 years. Focusing specifically on the performance of output after the recession trough, we find little or no difference in the pace of output growth across types of recessions. In particular, banking and financial crisis do not affect the strength of the economic rebound, although these recessions are more severe, implying a sizable output loss. However, recovery does change with some characteristics of recession. Recoveries tend to be faster following deeper recessions, especially in emerging markets, and tend to be slower following long recessions. Most recessions are associated with a slowing, if not outright decline in house prices, but recessions with large declines in house prices also tend to have slower recoveries. Long recessions and those associated with poor housing-market outcomes can lead to sustained output losses relative to pre-crisis trends. Consistent with microeconomic studies showing permanent income loss to job-losing workers during recessions, we find that the sustained deviation in output from trend is associated with a reduction in labor input, especially linked to declines in employment and labor-force participation following recessions. On net, our results imply that the output/employment gap following a severe, long recessions is considerably smaller than is typically assumed by standard macro models, which in turn may have substantial implications for macroeconomic policy during recoveries.